We published the following two publications for COP30:

Report “Climate Reparations for Military Emissions” and

Briefing “Climate Collateral (2025 update): Why the military’s impact on climate change can no longer be ignored”

Militarism is synonymous with ecological destruction. The US$2.7 trillion annual global military spending spree could have significantly helped fund much-needed adaptation and mitigation finance to developing countries — especially to countries that have contributed the least to climate crisis but will suffer its worst impacts.

The top 20 military spenders alone, despite comprising a mere 10% of the number of countries in the world, account for more than 80% of the total global military spending. Their excessive and oversized annual military expenditures also ensure they are responsible for the majority of the fossil-fuel powered military emissions that have polluted the world for decades.

Key findings

In this report, we estimate that the global top 20 military spenders alone are responsible for at least 10 billion metric tonnes of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e) of military-related emissions during the first quarter of the 21^th century.  This has accrued from the US$40 trillion spent on their militaries since 2001. We estimate that collectively they owe the world, especially the poorest and the most climate vulnerable countries, US$2.67 trillion in reparation for their military-GHG-emission-related climate costs (as measured by the social cost of carbon). This is more than 8 times the new climate finance pledge of US$300 billion to developing countries set at Baku COP29.

On top of the historical climate cost incurred so far in this 21^st century, the top military spenders continue to increase their annual military spending to record level year after year and hence stamp an ever bigger annual military carbon footprint on the world. The climate cost of their 2024 annual military spending is US$163 billion, more than 50% larger than the average over the preceding years in this century (US$109 billion). This annual reparation (arising from the ongoing annual military expenditure), if paid, could have funded the 2009 climate finance pledge of US$100 billion (that never got truthfully fulfilled) year after year, with change to spare.

The top 20 global military spenders – with their associated arms industries – are major climate polluters. This report shows the league table of just how much these 20 countries spend, emit and as a result, owe in climate reparations ― especially to the most climate vulnerable countries.

Recommendations  

1. Global top 20 military spenders should be held accountable for the damages caused by their enormous accumulated military emissions of the first quarter of the 21st century and pay historic climate reparations of US$2.67 trillion into the international military-emissions climate reparation fund. This military-emissions climate reparation fund will be an additional funding source to much-needed climate finance for countries in the Global South on the frontline of the climate emergency caused by the most advanced, well-armed, economies.
2. Top military spenders to pay annual climate reparation into an international military-emissions climate reparation fund to compensate for their ever-rising annual military spending. Top 20 military spenders on average collectively owe US$111 billion a year of SCC climate cost from their annual military-related emissions (over the last quarter of a century).
3. All nations to compulsorily submit comprehensive military GHG emission reporting to IPCC/UNFCCC.
4. All nations to include their militaries and military technology industries in their NDC GHG emission reduction plans and targets.
5. The UNFCCC must explicitly recognise the climate and ecological dimension of war and occupation. In particular, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR7 Special Report on Cities should include a dedicated chapter on war- and conflict-related emissions, with attention to the wholesale destruction of cities and systems such as Gaza City and its surrounding lands.
6. International institutions charged with adjudicating war crimes and reparations to ensure that military- and conflict-related emissions are incorporated into the reparation framework. Such work can build on the figures calculated here and in the companion paper on the case of Palestine.
7. Top military spenders to reduce their annual military expenditures and divert the money saved to fund sustainable human safety needs. One way to do this is TPNS’s 5% Formula.

The struggle for climate justice is increasingly overshadowed by a global arms race even though global temperatures are reaching record highs. States that should be working together to invest in urgent climate action are instead spending record sums on the military (over $2.7 trillion in 2024). This spending produces huge emissions, drains resources from climate action, and escalates geopolitical tensions that make multilateral climate action more difficult. (Briefing first created in 2023, updated for third time in November 2025. Published by Tipping Point North South jointly with the Transnational Institute and Stop Wapenhandel.)