Deficit hawks are destroying our children’s future

The combined impact of fewer workers and lower productivity is enormous. In 2008, before the true extent of the recession was known, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected that by 2017 the economy’s potential would be 29 percent larger than it had been in 2007. In its most recent report, the CBO puts the economy’s potential for 2017 at just 16 percent more than its 2007 level. This difference of 13 percentage points translates into more than $2 trillion a year in today’s economy.

It’s also well worth noting that this lost output is income that disproportionately would have gone to those at the middle and bottom of the income ladder. The people who don’t get employed in a weak economy are overwhelmingly African Americans, Hispanics, and workers with less education. Furthermore, in a weak labor market, workers at the middle and bottom of the wage ladder aren’t well positioned to get wage increases. The weakness of the labor market in the Great Recession and the anemic recovery that followed were both associated with a large shift in national income from wages to profits. In short, this was a hard punch to the belly for large segments of the working population.

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The problems of the handling of the Great Recession by Democrats

That’s how the party ended up with its most vulnerable members — centrist Blue Dogs in the South — hawking austerity during the worst mass unemployment crisis in 80 years. Almost all of them lost in 2010. That loss, in turn, paved the way for many of the other major problems Democrats are having. That was a census year, and huge Republican victories allowed them to control the subsequent redistricting process, in which they gerrymandered themselves a 7-point handicap in the House of Representatives and in many state legislatures.

That brings me to the foreclosure crisis, the handling of which was even worse. Instead of partially ameliorating it as with employment, the Obama administration helped it happen. As David Dayen writes in Chain of Title, the financial products underpinning the subprime mortgage boom were riddled with errors, and in order to be able to foreclose on people who had defaulted, they had to commit systematic document fraud. This epic crime spree gave the White House tremendous leverage to negotiate a settlement to keep people in their homes, but instead the administration co-opted a lawsuit from state attorneys general and turned it into a slap on the wrist that reinvigorated the foreclosure machine. There was also $75 billion in the Recovery Act to arrest foreclosures, but the administration’s effort at this, HAMP, was such a complete disaster that they only spent about 16 percent of the money and enabled thousands of foreclosures in the process.
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Real wages in the UK have fallen by more than 10 per cent

Real wage change (%) Employment rate change (percentage points)
Greece

-10.4

-9.0

UK

-10.4

0.6

Portugal

-3.7

-5.4

Italy

0.9

-2.3

Czech Rep

1.1

1.0

Ireland

1.6

-7.9

Spain

2.8

-8.5

Netherlands

3.4

-1.7

Denmark

4.0

-3.2

Lithuania

4.3

5.5

Israel

4.3

1.9

Finland

4.3

-3.8

Belgium

4.4

-0.7

Japan

4.7

2.6

Latvia

4.9

-3.0

USA

6.4

-3.4

Austria

6.5

1.2

OECD average

6.7

-0.6

Slovenia

7.2

-4.3

Australia

7.2

-0.7

Hungary

9.3

5.9

Canada

9.4

-1.7

Sweden

10.1

-0.7

France

10.5

-1.8

Luxembourg

11.1

-1.2

Switzerland

11.3

0.5

Slovakia

12.3

0.9

Estonia

13.4

2.2

Germany

13.9

5.1

Poland

23.0

4.5

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The Great Recession and the Housing Bubble

When the bubble burst housing construction fell back not just to its normal levels, but to its lowest share of GDP on record. The reason is that the construction from the bubble led to enormous overbuilding, which meant record high vacancy rates. The loss of $8 trillion in housing wealth led to an end of the bubble driven consumption boom. Taken together, the falloff in residential construction and the drop in consumption implied a loss in annual demand of more than 6 percentage points of GDP (@ $1.1 trillion in today’s economy).

There was no easy way to replace this loss in demand. Investment was not about to jump by 50 percent. Net exports could and did increase, but this is a slow process. In short, when the bubble burst we were destined to have a serious recession with or without the financial crisis.

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